Week 9 NFL Picks

Doc’s Sportstakes a look at two contest for this weekend that wagerers might want to tune in to.

The Miami Dolphins play at the New England Patriots on Sunday with the NFL odds establishing the Pats by 11.

Sure, New England has seemed like their old selves of late, friendly to supporters and brutal to foes against whom they have no reservations about beating to a pulp until coach Bill Belichick is fulfilled.

New England has won its last two games by a compounded score of 94-7, profiting in each game. But keep in mind these laughers came against the terrible Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are among the NFL’s bottom feeders.

So far this season, when New England has faced opposition they have sputtered. You can expect some opposition against the Miami Dolphins, whose tricky offensive formations and mostly sound defense has kept them close in most games.

Miami ranks fourth in rushing offense at 154 yards per game, while coming in sixth at stopping the run (92.4 ypg). The Dolphins also are a stunning 11th in scoring offense at 25.1 points per contest.

New England’s offensive stats were inflated by the two romps, but the Patriots also have quietly managed to field the league’s third-best scoring defense (14 ppg). The unit will have its hands full against a clock-control offense planned to shorten the game. Because of fewer drives, New England will not be able to pull away, and the points provide a nice softener here.

Trends: Miami is 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of double digits. Miami also is 5-0 ATS in their past five against division teams, and 13-3 ATS against home teams that are above .500. New England is 4-1 ATS in their past five as a chalk, and 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records. Each team won on the road last season.

Pick: Dolphins +11.

The 1-6 Tennessee Titans head to San Franciso to take on the 49ers. San Fran is marked as a 4-point chalk. Tennessee went from having the NFL’s best regular-season win total last season to becoming one of this season’s bottom-feeders. The 49ers went from a promising start to another season that looks headed toward mourning what could have been.

Neither result should come as much of a shocker. It’s not so much that Tennessee changed from a solid team into an awful one, as much as it is that the lines have plainly caught up with them. Coach Jeff Fisher’s conservative, run-oriented style lends itself to Tennessee consistently playing tight games. Last year, they just won most of them, and this year they are losing them. Fisher’s tight-gripped game plans are also suffering at the hands of opponents who run more sophisticated, higher-scoring offenses.

San Fran isn’t one of them. Although San Francisco’s defense is solid enough to keep the team in most games, its lack of offense has been a factor in its three straight defeats. The 49ers are 27th in total offense with 275 yards per game.

San Francisco’s second-ranked run defense will be up against the Titans’ second-ranked rushing attack (162 ypg). The match-up favors Fisher’s style, and the four points should come in handy.

Trends: The Titans are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5-10 points, and 4-1 ATS in their last five November games. The 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games, and 3-0-1 ATS after a straight-up loss.